Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
