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A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.